Who has the upper hand as CFL enters final third of regular season?

Defending champions Alouettes have the best record but appear vulnerable, as teams in Ottawa, Winnipeg and B.C. try to knock them off.

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Although each team plays 18 games, there’s a saying in the CFL that the real season doesn’t begin until Labour Day.

That statement holds some validity.

The Alouettes were on a four-game losing streak in September 2023, their record at 6-7, when the team went on an incredible eight-game run, including the playoffs and Grey Cup, winning a CFL championship seemingly against all odds.

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If one breaks the schedule into six-game increments, it’s easier to get a better gauge of each team’s strengths and weaknesses at the two-thirds mark than what could be determined after six matches. Saskatchewan was 5-1 at that juncture — and hasn’t won since. Conversely, Edmonton was 0-6 at the time and now appears to be one of the CFL’s hottest teams.

That doesn’t means we’re any closer to determining this season’s Cup champs. But with five of nine teams at that 12-game stage, it’s time to take stock, in order of each club’s position in the standings.

EAST

Alouettes (10-2): It’s hard to find fault with the league-leading Als, who have continued to roll despite a plethora of injuries. Whether it was to starting quarterback Cody Fajardo, receivers Tyson Philpot, Kaion Julien-Grant and Tyler Snead, linebacker Reggie Stubblefield or placekicker David Côté — not to mention suspended rush-end Shawn Lemon — the Als have limited their losing streaks to one game on two occasions.

But there are weaknesses on a team that has made a habit of coming from behind far too often.

Montreal has allowed 26 sacks. While not a horrendous number over 12 games, only three teams have allowed more and it’s why the club frequently is faced with second-and-long scenarios. At the same time, the Als have produced a modest 23 sacks — Lemon’s absence is conspicuous — ahead of only two teams. The Als also are easy to run against, allowing an average of 112.4 rushing yards per game.

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Nonetheless, they remain the defending champs until they’re dethroned, but do appear vulnerable.

Ottawa (8-3-1): The Redblacks have vastly improved and will make the playoffs for the first time since 2018.

New quarterback Dru Brown, despite his inexperience, has proven to be surprisingly serviceable. Justin Hardy is one of the league’s leading receivers and the Redblacks are confident enough on offence to have recently released Ryquell Armstead, their leading tailback. The team also has yet to lose at home (6-0-1) and trails the Als only by three points with two games remaining against Montreal.

Toronto (6-6): Quarterback Chad Kelly hasn’t been the same since last season’s East Division final and appears to be a distraction since returning from his nine-game suspension for violating the league’s gender-based violence policy.

The team is lacking culture and chemistry. Head coach Ryan Dinwiddie also appears to be losing control of the inmates, throwing his headset last weekend in Ottawa to try and inspire the troops. It didn’t work.

Hamilton (3-9): Two of the Tiger-Cats’ victories have come against Toronto in the battle of the QEW. If the teams met more often, Hamilton’s situation would be healthier.

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Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell throws for a bunch of yards and touchdowns, but also is intercepted on a regular basis. And the Ticats aren’t strong or deep enough to overcome those turnovers. The Ticats are the only game in town, so the denizens must be suffering.

WEST

Winnipeg (7-6): When the Blue Bombers started 0-4, it appeared management stuck one season too long with many of its players. But now there’s something to be said about stability, veteran experience and knowing how to win. Could Winnipeg be headed for a fifth consecutive Grey Cup appearance?

B.C. (7-6): A five-game winning streak was followed by a five-game losing streak, making it difficult to determine whether the Lions were that good or that bad.

But they appear to have turned the corner with the addition of Canadian quarterback Nathan Rourke and the return of rush-end Mathieu Betts, both of whom tried their luck in the NFL. With the power running of former Als tailback William Stanback and the receiving duo of Justin McInnis and Alexander Hollins, this team will be hard to beat.

Saskatchewan (5-7-1): The Roughriders ended 2023 on a seven-game losing streak and it appears, following a fast start this season, that history will be repeated. At this rate, Saskatchewan will be hard-pressed to hold onto a playoff spot despite the return from injury of QB Trevor Harris. Hiring new head coach Corey Mace was expected to change the team’s fortunes.

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Edmonton (5-8): Obviously the problem was GM and head coach Chris Jones, fired following an 0-5 start and replaced by Jarious Jackson. The team has a solid one-two punch at quarterback, with McLeod Bethel-Thompson and Tre Ford, a trio of talented tailbacks and depth at the receiver position. Jackson has the Elks believing. With few expectations, they could prove to be a hard out if they make the playoffs.

Calgary (4-8): We’d suggest GM Dave Dickenson needs to fire head coach Dickenson, but the Stampeders would probably continue to struggle. Calgary might have the league’s weakest roster. Dickenson was so desperate last week he benched QB Jake Maier for rookie Logan Bonner, who threw five interceptions against Edmonton. QB Vernon Adams Jr., who could be the odd man out in B.C., probably will be monitoring this scenario closely.

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