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Like the National Football League, the National Assembly kicks off its new season within the next little while, with MNAs returning to their desks on Sept. 10. A pre-season Léger poll was released this week, setting the stage for another raucous session as the Coalition Avenir Québec government of François Legault enters the second half of its mandate, still trailing the Parti Québécois in voter intentions.

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The poll, however, shows that the lead enjoyed by the PQ since late last year is dwindling. Having reached a high of 34 per cent in the spring, the party is down to 29 per cent support, with the CAQ at 24 and the Liberals — without a permanent leader yet — only 13 points back at 16 per cent.

Québec solidaire and the Conservatives are at 15 and 13 per cent respectively — important enough numbers that show there is still a diverse and fractured electorate, seeking alternatives.

For non-francophones, the polls of the past year have been disconcerting. The CAQ government has inflicted blow after blow to minority communities and their institutions, so many may have taken some solace in seeing Legault squirm as his party and personal numbers took a tumble. But unfortunately, those losses benefited the PQ and its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who wanted the government to go even further in strengthening language laws. The two parties are polling over 50 per cent combined.

Poll numbers, of course, are a snapshot of the day. They could also be a hint of developing trends, but may be quickly altered by circumstances. Among the main parties, the Liberals are facing an upcoming change in their circumstance that could dramatically influence their electoral fortunes. With a leadership contest on the horizon and some strong potential aspirants, they are the subject of much conversation again and could re-emerge as a contender. There are numerous ridings in which the Liberals could come up the middle if they increase their numbers by a few points by repatriating a chunk of federalist voters from the CAQ, and reaffirm their position at the political centre to hive off a portion of QS and Conservative votes, while the CAQ and PQ split the more nationalist francophone vote almost evenly.

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But they must find that right leader who generates some enthusiasm and renewal. Another section of the poll gauges the potential leadership candidates, identifying Denis Coderre as the favourite, though the pollsters have said this is most likely due to name recognition. They said the same of federal MP Pablo Rodriguez, who placed second and is expected to jump into the race imminently. Once all candidates pronounce, start campaigning and carve public profiles, I expect others will emerge as stronger options.

Of potential concern for anglophones should be how the Liberals react to another finding of the poll: their support among francophones being mired at seven per cent. Hopefully, the party and its leadership aspirants won’t react by believing they need to exploit the zero-sum game of Quebec language politics and strike out on an insular nationalist path to mimic the CAQ and PQ for electoral gain. We’ve already seen Coderre indicate general support for Bill 96, despite the Liberals’ opposition in the past.

What undoubtedly unites all Quebecers, regardless of language, race or religion, is a desire for better health care, an affordable lifestyle and housing, and quality education. Accordingly, the poll found that only 31 per cent of the population believes Quebec is heading in a positive direction. This should become the Liberals’ mantra entering the second half of the parliamentary mandate, along with some proposed solutions.

Despite a poor first half for the Liberals, like the Kansas City Chiefs in last season’s Super Bowl, with a good leader they could prevail at game’s end, when it really counts.

Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee.

x.com/robertlibman

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