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There’s a meme going around the internet these days that would likely get a knowing guffaw out of many Montrealers.

“Montreal is only two hours from … Montreal,” says the caption, superimposed over a photo of a traffic jam.

It’s not far from truth in this city and the wider region. With all the traffic, collisions, stalls, construction, detours, lane reductions and weekend closures, rush-hour gridlock often feels like a 24/7 phenomenon. But it’s also possible we ain’t seen nothing yet.

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Things could get worse — much worse — if the Autorité régionale de transport métropolitain makes good on a proposal to terminate three commuter train lines. Among cost-saving scenarios under study, the agency that plans, operates and funds transit in Greater Montreal is considering nixing the Mascouche, Candiac and Mont-St-Hilaire Exo trains and replacing them with buses. It is also mulling shuttering certain stops along the Vaudreuil-Hudson and St-Jérôme lines.

Ironically, the news of these possible devastating service cuts broke the day mayors of suburbs north of Montreal went to the National Assembly to demand better public transit service for their communities. Instead, the mayors of Blainville, Terrebonne, L’Assomption, St-Eustache, Deux-Montagnes, Mirabel and other fast-growing cities were blindsided with the prospect of less transit.

Also ironic, news of cancelling existing service comes as the Coalition Avenir Québec government studies a bill in committee that would create a new super-transit-planning agency for the province, to expedite the design, financing and building of new infrastructure. Quebec should be investing in and expanding public transit — there’s no doubt about that. But new projects shouldn’t replace the existing offering — they should add to it.

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Alas, it looks like Quebec is going to rob Peter to pay Paul.

To be clear, the ARTM isn’t floating the idea of axing entire commuter train lines because it will improve service. On the contrary, this is a desperate bid to deal with years of chronic transit underfunding in Quebec. The ARTM is facing significant and escalating deficits that could amount to more than $2 billion over five years. So far, the Quebec government has stubbornly refused to completely fill the hole.

Last year, there was a bitter standoff as Montreal, Laval, Longueuil and other municipalities tried to finalize their city budgets while begging Transport Minister Geneviève Guilbault to mop up the red ink. Guilbault only came up with about 70 per cent of the funding.

In 2025, the ARTM’s funding gap is projected to reach $560 million, but the Quebec government has so far only agreed to cover $200 million. The shortfall is set to reach $700 million by 2028.

In search of sustainable funding that doesn’t involve arm-wrestling with the Quebec government, Montreal reluctantly raised métro and bus fares on July 1, and the 82 municipalities of the Communauté métropolitaine de Montréal made the tough decision to nearly triple the vehicle registration tax in order to fund public transit.

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The problem is that the government of Premier François Legault, which has far more means to fund transit than cities, seems more interested in building shiny new infrastructure. Mayors of municipalities big and small are calling on the Quebec government to invest massively in public transit. But this can’t come at the expense of operational funds for what already exists.

Besides, cutting three of the five Exo lines would put only $21 million back in the ARTM’s coffers — a drop in the bucket. (The total savings of the cuts would be $38 to $44 million, but putting buses on the roads would cost $18 million.) Worse, it would precipitate what experts call a “transit death spiral,” where the reduced offering of service drives more and more passengers away, causing further loss of revenue and necessitating steeper service cuts. The dire consequences are just not worth the potential savings.

Although commuter rail has been slower to rebound than other types of transit since the pandemic, attracting back just 47 per cent of its pre-2020 volume across all five lines, it has recently shown encouraging signs of growth. In the first quarter of 2024, 1.8 million passengers used the Exo trains, according to La Presse — an increase of 23 per cent from a year earlier. It would be a shame to reverse that positive trend now.

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Buses simply can’t match the capacity of the trains. Some commuters would have no choice but to drive. And if they’d just end up sitting in traffic on a bus, what’s the point anyhow?

So cancelling the trains will put more cars on the road, creating more traffic, more emissions — and more misery for motorists stuck in gridlock.

As if congestion isn’t bad enough already. With debacles like the closure of half the La Fontaine Tunnel, which South Shore motorists use to reach the island of Montreal, or the reduced capacity of the crumbling Île-aux-Tourtes Bridge as crews race to construct the long-overdue new one alongside, getting around is a crapshoot. Throw in periodic blockades, like last weekend’s shutdown of a portion of the Metropolitan Expressway near Cavendish Blvd. to fix a botched paving job, and Montrealers can be forgiven for feeling trapped.

That’s not to say Exo train service is currently optimal. Most departures are limited to early mornings and returns to evenings, with gaps in the middle of the day. In some cases, there is no weekend service.

One of the complaints of the North Shore mayors is that the Mascouche route is too circuitous and time-consuming, especially after the trains were barred from the Mount Royal Tunnel when the REM took over the tracks.

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The schedule doesn’t work for everyone. But for those who rely on the train to get to work or school, it is vital.

Montrealers can only dream of the kind of train service other cities have. In New York City, there are hourly departures between Grand Central and upstate communities — even on Sunday. And the trains are often packed. The stunning views along the Hudson River on the Poughkeepsie line are an attraction for day-trippers from Manhattan. And the Greater Toronto area’s GO service attempts to lure tourists aboard its commuter trains on weekends to head to Niagara Falls and the surrounding wine region.

Perhaps maximizing use of the train service we do have could be one way for the ARTM to turn things around. Since the pandemic, traffic for the three lines on the chopping block has rebounded only 20 per cent for Mascouche, 35 per cent for Mont-St-Hilaire and 53 per cent for Candiac. Could Montrealers looking to pick apples or go to the spa in Mont-St-Hilaire be a fresh revenue stream to tap?

Montrealers need more transit options — not fewer.

Confronting the climate emergency also demands the expansion of transit rather than a reversal. In Quebec, over 40 per cent of emissions come from transportation, most of it tailpipe pollution. This is not only the largest, but the fastest-growing source of Quebec’s greenhouse gases. And electrification alone will not bring them down. Scuttling three train lines would be a colossal error.

The Legault government hasn’t seemed moved by the economic, environmental or human toll of underfunding public transit. But perhaps the political fallout will get its attention.

Over the years, the CAQ government has had no qualms about ignoring the pleas of Montreal, even as Mayor Valérie Plante warned about having to close the métro late at night. (She also went to bat for the three potentially doomed train lines Friday.) But as the Legault government’s popularity plummets, can it afford to ignore the concerns of the suburban voters who helped propel it to two consecutive, resounding majorities? More importantly, can it rip away from its North and South Shore bastions what little transit they currently have?

Perhaps in this regard, there’s some method to the ARTM’s madness.

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